SuperforecastingRecommendations
About the book
If you're looking to sharpen your forecasting skills and make better predictions about the future, "Superforecasting" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a must-read. This book delves into the art and science of prediction, offering insights from some of the world’s most skilled forecasters. The authors present a compelling argument that anyone can improve their forecasting abilities with the right mindset and techniques. They share practical advice on how to think critically, gather information, and avoid common cognitive pitfalls. With engaging anecdotes and real-world examples, "Superforecasting" provides a fresh approach to understanding uncertainty and making informed decisions. Whether you're an investor, a business leader, or simply someone interested in the complexities of predicting future events, this book will inspire you to think more deeply and strategically.The book comes highly recommended by a diverse group of influential figures, including leaders in various fields such as business, media, and science. Notable endorsements come from entrepreneurs and investors, alongside media personalities and educators, highlighting its appeal across different sectors. The common thread among these recommenders is a focus on critical thinking and decision-making, suggesting that "Superforecasting" resonates particularly well with those who aim to navigate uncertainty and make informed choices in their professional and personal lives.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER.
“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
People recommending Superforecasting
What readers say about ‘Superforecasting’
Alexis Ohanian on Superforecasting
"Such a great book. Building software right now that's informed by this."
Shane Parrish on Superforecasting
Shane Parrish recommended this book in his blog.
Michael Mauboussin on Superforecasting
"Most important book since Thinking, Fast & Slow."
Anthony Pompliano on Superforecasting
"[One of the] best books I read in 2017."
Julia Galef on Superforecasting
"[Has] some good advice on how to improve your ability to make accurate predictions."
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