Thinking in BetsRecommendations
About the book
"Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke is a compelling read for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills. As a former professional poker player, Duke uses the game as a metaphor for life, emphasizing how uncertainty and risk play into our daily choices. The book encourages readers to adopt a more analytical mindset, treating decisions like bets rather than outcomes. This approach helps to reduce the emotional weight we often attach to our choices, allowing for clearer thinking and better outcomes. By understanding the principles of probability and the importance of gathering relevant information, readers can learn to navigate life’s complexities with greater confidence. Whether you’re a business professional, a student, or simply someone looking to enhance your critical thinking skills, Duke’s insights will resonate with you, providing a fresh perspective on how to approach life’s decisions.The book has garnered endorsements from a diverse group of influential figures, including authors, investors, and educators. With recommendations from notable personalities like Neil Gaiman and Howard Marks, it reflects a strong interest among leaders in the creative and financial sectors. This eclectic mix of endorsements suggests that "Thinking in Bets" appeals to a wide audience, particularly those who thrive in high-stakes environments and understand the value of strategic thinking. The collective support from such a varied group underscores the book's relevance across multiple domains.
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
People recommending Thinking in Bets
What readers say about ‘Thinking in Bets’
Michael Mauboussin on Thinking in Bets
"An awesome book."
Howard Marks on Thinking in Bets
"So many of [the author's] thoughts on poker and on decision-making in general agreed with mine."
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